Feed markets do not operate separately from energy and shipping. Fuel affects processing and transport; natural gas is central to nitrogen fertiliser production; and energy policy can change demand for maize, vegetable oils, waste oils and animal fats as biofuel feedstocks.
The practical procurement lesson is not to predict the next commodity price. It is to understand how a disruption travels, where it can enter delivered cost and why the commercial effect may emerge later than the original event.
An agricultural shock can start outside agriculture
An OECD analysis published in June 2026 illustrates the connection. The Middle East represents only around 0.4% of global agricultural production and 3% of agricultural trade, yet it accounted for 34% of global crude-oil exports and 19% of liquefied-natural-gas trade in 2025.
Around one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where short-term diversion capacity is limited. Disruption can therefore affect agriculture indirectly through energy, fertiliser, insurance and transport even when the affected region is not a major producer of the feed material being purchased.
The OECD recorded Brent moving from around USD 67 per barrel in early February 2026 to above USD 100 in early March, with a peak of USD 138 on 7 April. These are historical observations from a specific event, not a forecast for future energy or feed prices.
Fertiliser is a major transmission channel
Nitrogen fertiliser production is energy-intensive. The OECD reports that Gulf countries account for approximately 35% of global urea exports, 25% of diammonium-phosphate exports, 20% of ammonia exports and 40% of sulphur exports.
Higher energy and transport costs can therefore move into crop-production costs through fertiliser manufacturing, availability and distribution. The eventual effect on grain and oilseed output depends on the duration of the disruption, planting decisions, input inventories, policy responses and weather.
This chain is important for feed buyers because the first visible movement may occur in an input market rather than in the feed ingredient itself.
Meals, grains and oils do not respond as one market
The early-2026 response recorded by OECD was uneven. From March to April, international wheat prices were unchanged, maize increased by 1% and soybeans declined by 2%, while soybean oil increased by 9% and groundnut oil by 14%. Rapeseed, sunflower and palm oils recorded smaller increases.
Ample global grain and oilseed supplies provided a buffer, while expectations around biodiesel demand affected vegetable oils more directly. The episode demonstrates why a broad statement such as ‘energy is up, therefore all feed ingredients are up’ is not a sufficient purchasing analysis.
Protein meals, vegetable oils, fibrous co-products and marine ingredients have different production chains, end uses, inventory structures and freight sensitivities. Each should be assessed through its own technical and commercial profile.
Timing can conceal the real exposure
OECD’s scenario work indicates that energy shocks can reach agricultural markets with a lag. Forward purchasing and existing input stocks may cushion the immediate effect, while higher fertiliser and production costs influence the following planting cycle and later marketing periods.
Delivered cost can also change before the commodity benchmark moves. Bunker fuel, insurance, route length, equipment availability, port congestion, financing and storage can alter the commercial result between origin and destination.
- Separate commodity value, processing cost and freight in internal comparisons.
- Record the route, port pair, Incoterm and responsibility for delay or diversion.
- Match contingency stock to shelf life, storage conditions and realistic lead time.
- Maintain an approved alternative route or material where technically practical.
- Recheck documents and destination eligibility whenever an origin or route changes.
Resilience is an operating process
The International Maritime Organization continued to warn about Red Sea security in July and August 2026. Following a fatal attack on the cargo ship TIHAMAH, IMO urged shipowners and operators to assess risks thoroughly, follow appropriate best-management practices and protect seafarers.
A buyer cannot remove geopolitical risk from international trade. A buyer can reduce avoidable exposure by making route assumptions visible, agreeing escalation points with logistics partners, keeping lot and specification records aligned and identifying which alternative products are genuinely qualified.
The objective is not to react to every headline. It is to know which events can affect a particular ingredient, delivery window or destination—and which contractual and operational controls are already in place.